The U.S. multifamily sector is exhibiting clear recovery signals, with vacancy rates holding steady around 6.5%, absorption rates catching up to new supply, and investment volumes climbing back toward pre-pandemic highs.

National Vacancy and Supply Dynamics

Post-construction boom pressures are easing as deliveries slow from 2024 peaks of over 400,000 units to under 300,000 in 2026, allowing absorption to match completions at roughly 250,000 units annually. Sun Belt strongholds like Dallas, Phoenix, and Atlanta lead with sub-6% vacancies and 3-4% rent growth, while coastal gateways stabilize through concessions and value-add repositioning.

Investment Revival Drivers

Transaction volumes surged 25% in late 2025 to $75 billion quarterly, fueled by declining rates (now ~6%) and institutional appetite for stabilized assets yielding 5.5-6.5% cap rates. Markets like Dallas exemplify this, boasting 95% occupancy, $1,700 average rents, and $2B+ deals as job growth in tech and logistics sustains demand.

Regional Variations and Outlook

Secondary markets outperform primaries, with Midwest metros like Charlotte and Raleigh seeing vacancy compression to 6%, while legacy cities deploy rent control and affordability mandates. Developers pivot to workforce housing and mixed-income projects, anticipating 2-3% national rent escalation through 2026 amid demographic tailwinds.

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